![]() ![]() And anyway, even if you insist on limiting the analysis to Super Bowls only, the base rate here is still less than 66.8 percent (the market’s odds on this occurring).īefore concluding that the sportsbook has this prop priced wrong, however, there’s another factor to account for: the offensive strength of these particular teams. But honestly, that’s a silly comparison that unnecessarily limits the sample. Perhaps there’s something special about the Super Bowl somehow? If we just look at the big game, 14 of the past 22 Super Bowls (64 percent) had at least one series of back-to-back-to-back possessions resulting in scores. Politics Podcast: Are Millennials Getting More Conservative? That’s over half of all games (53.9 percent)! And while that’s well shy of the nearly 67 percent implied probability for the Super Bowl prop, it’s still somewhat eyebrow-raising. Since 2000, there have been 3,317 games that featured back-to-back-to-back scoring possessions, out of 6,159 regular-season and postseason games played. The results were surprising (at least to me). To find out, I pulled up play-by-play data from the open-source data repository nflreadr and identified every instance of a game with at least one series of three straight scoring possessions by any team. Do two-thirds of NFL games feature a series of three consecutive possessions ending in some score or another? And if so, has it always been this way? 3 Maybe I just don’t pay enough attention to the games, but 67 percent seems surprisingly high. One international sportsbook is laying odds on three straight scores by either team in Super Bowl LVII - meaning the Philadelphia Eagles and/or Kansas City Chiefs would score on three consecutive possessions between the two of them 2 - and the current implied probability for “yes” is 66.8 percent. I’m sticking to actual football this time around, though, because I found a bet that was too interesting to pass up. In between, I looked at the most likely opening song in Jennifer Lopez’s halftime show, and which word Amanda Gorman would utter first during the performance of her pregame poem. Last year, I analyzed whether bitcoin’s price would fall during the Super Bowl (it did) back in 2019, I looked at whether Gladys Knight would go over 107 seconds with her rendition of the national anthem (she did, just barely). This is the fifth year running that I’ll be overanalyzing a prop bet, and in past years I’ve focused on bets that had nothing to do with the actual game. Fans in Glendale will be able to bet while at the game using their phones, and gambling trade groups are projecting 50 million people will wager $16 billion on the Super Bowl - more than double last year’s “ handle.” 1 It seems like everybody is in a gambling mood in 2023 - so let’s join them. This year’s Super Bowl in Arizona will be the first ever played in a state with legalized gambling. The bets have been coming in fast and furious during this Super Bowl week. ![]()
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